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I think everyone has now accepted that Liverpool is going to be the EnglishPremier League champion for the 2019/20 season. Sixteen points ahead ofManchester City with a game in hand, it looks like the red half of Merseysidewill be celebrating its first title in 30 years.
The race for the remaining Champions League places also looks just aboutsorted. Manchester City and Leicester City can probably start organizing travelvisas and hotel reservations, while Chelsea looks the most likely to join themin Europe’s premier club competition next season.
But with the standard of the rest of the top flight in England the way it is,there are a number of clubs in the running for a place in next season’s EuropaLeague. With about a third of the season left to play, I’m going to try todetermine which teams will qualify for Premier League Europa League spots andthe betting markets related to that race.
The departure of Roma, Juventus and Lazio from European competition means that England's Premier League is set to retain four UEFA Champions League slots for 2017/18. Manchester City have played a. It is time to focus on the latest Premier League relegation, top 4 and Europa League scenarios and remind ourselves of the Premier League tiebreaker rules as the business end of the season is here.
The top four teams in the Premier League will qualify for the group stages of the Champions League. Winning the Champions League or Europa League also guarantees a place in the group stages. In the Premier League for example, four top sides qualify into the Champions League while winner of the Carabao Cup, FA Cup and the fifth placed side go into the Champions and Europa Leagues respectively. But this season, City have won the league cup, which means the sixth placed side will have an automatic slot in the Europa League next season. Since the Premier League can't exceed five teams in the Champions League, that would mean the fourth-placed finisher would be dealt the misfortune of being dumped into the Europa League.
The Champions League has become all-important in Europe. In England, clubscelebrate a top four finish almost as much as they would a league title thesedays, and definitely more than a FA Cup triumph.
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Many in England see the Europa League as an unwanted distraction from thePremier League and a poor consolation prize for not finishing in the top four.But it is still European soccer, and it does even hold an extra chance atChampions League qualification now as well.
In England, the fifth-place team in the Premier League qualifies for theEuropa League, as well as the FA Cup and EFL Cup winners. But due to the factthat the cup winners invariably have already qualified for Europe, those spotsgo to the sixth- and sometimes seventh-place teams in the league.
With this season’s EFL Cup winners likely to have already qualified for theChampions League, we will probably see the sixth-place team make the EuropaLeague. There are a few more rounds to go in the FA Cup, but we could have thesame situation there as well.
Although clubs like Manchester United and Spurs might feel that they shouldbe in the Champions League, there are a number of smaller clubs, such as Wolvesand Sheffield United, who would be more grateful of European soccer.
Latest Europa League Betting Odds
With the exact number of Europa League qualification places still not known,the best betting market to look at here is the odds for a top-six finish. Hereare the prices at Betway’s sportsbook.
Obviously, Betway thinks that Liverpool, Manchester City, and Leicester Citywill all definitely finish in the top six, so there are no prices offered forthem. It is interesting that Chelsea is listed, even if the odds are very short.I think Frank Lampard will lead his team to a top four finish, so I’m going toeliminate Chelsea from the race for Europa League qualification.
This list is a good example of how open — or how poor, depending on yourviewpoint — the Premier League has been this season. For Newcastle, Burnley, andCrystal Palace to even be involved in talk about finishing in the top six seemsincredible. But if any of these three went on a good winning streak, there mightbe a chance.
Southampton was nailed on as relegation favorites just before Christmas, buta recent run of form now sees the club in the upper reaches of the table.
I’m going to omit those four, however, as I don’t think any of them will beable to keep up over the next few months. But let’s take a look at the chancesof the remaining six clubs in the list of qualifying for the Europa League.
(Very) Long Shots to Finish in the Premier League Top Six
The odds of 8.50 for Everton to finish top six in the Premier League seemincredibly generous to the Toffees given the season it is going through. Evertonis currently in 12th and has experienced the relegation zone asrecently as December. With Liverpool enjoying such a successful campaign, theform of Everton has been even more disappointing than usual for the fans, and itlooks like another season will pass the club by.
The appointment of former player Duncan Ferguson as interim manager inDecember has been the one real highlight of the season so far. With morale at anall-time low, the fans’ favorite sparked enthusiasm on and off the pitch as theteam dragged itself away from the lower reaches of the table. Carlo Ancelottiwas, somewhat surprisingly, given the job on a full-time basis, and there doesseem to be renewed belief around the club now.
But to think that Everton can now finish in the top six is a real stretch. Iwould want much bigger odds than 8.50 to take on that bet, and even if EuropaLeague qualification does extend down to seventh this season, I think that isstill too much of a leap.
Another club that looks like it might be turning the corner is Arsenal.Arsene Wenger’s departure, although needed, left the club with little direction,and Unai Emery was unable to turn around a team that had already slipped out ofcontention for top four finishes. Mikel Arteta looks like a very good managerialappointment, but there is a lot of work to be done at the club.
If Arteta can convince players like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang that Arsenal isa club looking forward to Champions League involvement, then he may have achance to build a team that can compete. He has a very good, but very young,group of players at the moment, and there is definitely a period of transitionfor the Arsenal fans to endure before they enjoy success again.
I don’t think Arsenal will finish high enough in the Premier League toqualify for Europe, so the odds of just 3.00 to make the top six don’t interestme. The Gunners have always been a good FA Cup team, though, and are stillinvolved in this season’s competition. But with four more games to play beforelifting the trophy, I’m not sure I would back Arsenal to win its 14thFA Cup title, either. So I don’t think there will be any European competitionfor the club next season (unless it wins the Europa League, of course!).
Tottenham Hotspur is having a strange season. After making it all the way tothe Champions League final last year, Spurs have dropped away from the top fourquite alarmingly. There were a couple of interesting signings in the summer thatsuggested the club might compete and some early draws against Manchester Cityand Arsenal that seemed to back up that point.
But a bad run of form meant that Mauricio Pochettino was gone by the end ofNovember, with Jose Mourinho returning to English soccer as the new manager. Heis definitely a polarizing figure, but it looked like he was largely greetedenthusiastically when he was appointed.
But the results have not really improved, and there is now his style ofsoccer for the fans to be upset with.
An injury to Harry Kane that will see him miss the majority of the rest ofthe season spells big trouble for Spurs. The FA Cup is still open as a route tosilverware and Europa League qualification, but I can’t see it going all the waythere, either. Out of the clubs currently grouped in the potential Europa Leagueplaces, Spurs seem to be the one with the least to offer. I think odds of 1.53for a top six finish are far too short, and I don’t think it will qualify forthe Europa League via any other route, either.
Sheffield United, on the other hand, has been one of the success stories ofthe Premier League season. Only promoted back to the top flight at the end oflast season, manager Chris Wilder has his team playing an exciting brand ofsoccer that has tested the very best in the division.
The Blades have scored markedly fewer goals this season than their immediaterivals but have also conceded fewer than everyone apart from Liverpool in thePremier League. The form away from home has been impressive, where there havebeen a lot of draws to keep the club higher up the league. Any Sheffield Unitedfan would be incredibly happy with the way the season has gone so far, but thiswould seem to be about the limit of the club’s success.
The odds of 7.00 for a top-six finish are attractive, but I’m not sure thatthe Blades will be able to manage that with the squad they have. But if seventhplace does end up qualifying for the Europa League, then that might be a morerealistic option. Betway is not offering a market on making next season’scompetition at the moment, but if you can find one, then I think you could getquite good odds for Sheffield United playing European soccer next year.
Favorites to Finish in the Top Six
For a top six finish, I don’t think you can look past Manchester United andWolves to take the remaining two spots. As we have seen, that might leave onefurther Europa League place to fill, but these two should be assured of makingthe cut.
Manchester United fans may feel as though the Europa League is below them,given the success the club has enjoyed domestically and on the continent overthe last 20 years. But it is a trying time for the club at the moment, and OleGunnar Solskjaer is struggling to keep his team in contention.
It might not be the crisis that is consistently reported by the media, butManchester United has a way to go before it is competing with Liverpool andManchester City for league titles again.
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Recruitment seems to have been a particular problem for United, and allowingplayers such as Romelu Lukaku and even Chris Smalling to leave has not helped.The players that did come in at the beginning of the season have definitelyimproved the defensive side of things, but there is a distinct absence ofcreativity in the middle of the pitch.
That being said, United is still fifth even after all its troubles. It maynot be a season to remember at Old Trafford, but there should be a top sixfinish at the end of it, as well as Europa League qualification.
The other club I feel will be able to take one of the top six places isWolves. The Black Country club came up last season and qualified for Europe atthe first attempt, finishing in seventh place. Unlike some clubs in previousyears, the very early start to the season the Europa League brought has not hada negative impact on results.
The first few months of the campaign may not have brought in many points, butthe team has rallied since then.
There have been a number of defeats recently, although Wolves have had toplay Liverpool twice within a month. Apart from that, manager Nuno EspiritoSanto is getting the same kind of performance from his team as he did lastseason. There have been a number of recruits to bolster the squad, largely fromPortugal once again, and Adama Traore has started to live up to his enormouspotential recently. His pace can unlock any defense, and the entire attackingunit at Wolves is a big reason why the club is doing so well.
The defensive qualities at Wolves are sometimes overlooked when it comes toevaluating its success. But if the forwards can manage to score a few moregoals, I would not be surprised if Wolves overtake Manchester United and end upin fifth. Champions League soccer is still just out of the club’s reach, butsome further investment and creative recruitment in the summer could changethat.
To answer the question of which clubs will qualify for the Europa League, alot depends on whether the Premier League ends up with one, two, or even threerepresentatives. I think there is a good chance of at least two, so I can seeWolves and Manchester United qualifying.
Although I wouldn’t take the bet of Sheffield United finishing in the topsix, I do think that it could grab the final Europa League spot if a teamalready qualified for Europe wins the FA Cup. It has been an incredible seasonso far for the Blades, and a place in one of the continental competitions nextyear would be fully deserved.
Imagine the archetypal Hollywood blockbuster, where heroes battle adversity and come out on top. This is the kind of movie laden with star names and big brand product placements. Like an addition to the Star Wars franchise, it stirs emotions while turning over massive business worldwide.
This is the level of entertainment currently provided by English football. So much so that it should be considered one of Hollywood’s biggest rivals – positioned to take a massive bite out of the movie industry’s never-ending pursuit for the public’s attention (and cash).
After a series of games packed full of drama and commercial opportunities that would make a Beverley Hills producer salivate, English Premier League (EPL) clubs secured all four places in the finals of Europe’s top club competitions, UEFA’s Champions and Europa Leagues. This is the first time in history that one nation has dominated in such a way, with Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Chelsea securing the available slots.
Football fans in Liverpool and north London have inevitably revelled in the victories of “their” clubs. So too has much of Britain, even those who might normally have little interest in football. For the purists, this has been the stuff of legend. It plays to a self-perpetuating idea that frequently casts England as the home of football.
It has also been an opportunity for long-term club loyalists to claim the victories as a reinforcement of their community’s identities. There was even some respite from the tortuous Brexit political impasse. For once, England feels on top of the world.
But the less glamorous truth is that the passage of the four English clubs into the European finals was the result of industry, money and politics. English football’s success is an entertainment product nearly three decades in the making, and comes via smart commercial management, international free trade, and developments in broadcasting and globalisation, all of which have been helped by a prevailing free market ideology.
A cosmopolitan affair
The EPL was established in 1992 to do exactly what it is now doing. The essence of its formation was an emphasis on improving performance (both in international competitions and financially), stronger management, and commercial development. Nobody should therefore be surprised about the success English clubs are enjoying. However, it seems fanciful – disingenuous even – to claim that this is a success for English football. If anything, the country is merely the location for production of a global entertainment behemoth.
Only one of the clubs (Tottenham) is British owned – albeit by someone who resides in the Bahamas. The others are owned by Americansand a Russian. All four team managers are from overseas (an Argentinian, a German, an Italian and a Spaniard). The shirt sponsors take in a Japanese tyre brand (Yokohama), a Middle East airline (Emirates) and a Hong Kong insurance company (AIA). Most of the players appearing in the semi-final games were from elsewhere – only eight players out of the 44 who started on the pitch were English.
The EPL’s inception coincided with both the European Union’s Bosman ruling (which boosted the free movement of footballers) and with globalisation, which has dramatically increased cross-border business, from talent recruitment to securing commercial partners. Hence, it is no surprise that the EPL has become such a cosmopolitan affair.
Big money
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Every drama needs screen time to sustain its success, and satellite broadcasting to global audiences has brought in vast revenues for EPL clubs, which in turn sustains player acquisitions and major infrastructural investments. All of which has been enabled by the British government’s prevailing laissez-faire approach to industrial policy, characterised by financial gain and capitalism.
As a result, the EPL has not only developed as a big brand in its own right, it has induced a clustering effect, helping the brands around it grow. The likes of Manchester United and Manchester City are now among some of the world’s most valuable sports brands, while players appearing in the league routinely appear on lists of the world’s most marketable athletes. In turn, sponsorship consultancies, stadium design companies, data analysis agencies and more have all been able to build their businesses on the back of links to the Premier League.
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Yet in the league’s brand constellation, it is not just the football business that has benefited. Brand Britain has become a star too. In rankings of soft power, the UK’s often pre-eminent position is partly attributed to the EPL effect. Politicians have been quick to take advantage of this; Tony Blair used it to strike trade deals with China, while the current government often enlists the help of clubs when it goes on overseas trade missions.
Football helps sell what the rest of Britain also has to offer. So compelling has the EPL’s economic impact become, that it now publishes details of its contribution to national income and employment.
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The 2019 Champions League and Europa League finals may nevertheless mark the highest point of English football’s industrial success story. Clouds are gathering on the horizon – one outcome of which has been the EPL’s failure to recruit a new chief executive.
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Brexit, changes in broadcasting technology, shifts in the consumption of content, and growing competition from rivals such as Spain’s La Liga all threaten English football’s global competitive advantage. Whoever replaces outgoing CEO of the EPL, Richard Scudamore, has a big job on their hands.